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【Counting the Two Sessions】About 5%: Showing determination and confidence
2025-05-06 source:Economic Daily

"Gross domestic product growth of about 5%" - the government work report submitted to the Third Session of the 14th National People's Congress for review on March 5, which unveiled the main expected goals of my country's economic development in 2025. This growth target is consistent with the past two years and is a goal of facing difficulties and proactively seeking progress. It reflects the Party Central Committee's scientific analysis and judgment of the development situation and its precise grasp of the policy rhythm. Against the backdrop of increasing risks and challenges and increasing development base, my country demonstrates its firm confidence in stabilizing the economy and promoting development and its strategic determination to steadily promote Chinese-style modernization with high-quality development.

Setting economic development goals in a realistic way is the key to stabilizing expectations and building consensus. In 2025, the adverse effects brought about by changes in the external environment may deepen, and the pain of domestic transformation and upgrading will still appear. The scale of college graduates is still at a high level. Whether it is to stabilize and expand employment, increase residents' income, or prevent and resolve risks in key areas, it is necessary to maintain a certain economic growth rate. The expected target of about 5% is of great significance to boosting the development confidence of the whole society and stabilizing the development expectations. It should also be noted that on the basis of the continuous expansion of my country's total economic output, the growth target of about 5% seems to have not changed, but in fact, the increment created is greater, the momentum of accumulation is stronger, and the value of development is higher.

From the perspective of long-term and short-term, the growth target of about 5% meets the goals and requirements of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and is connected with the goals and tasks of basically achieving socialist modernization by 2035. In accordance with the "two-step" strategic arrangement determined by the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, by 2035, my country will basically achieve socialist modernization and its per capita GDP will reach the level of a moderately developed country. It is estimated that this requires that the economic growth rate remain at around 5% in the later period of the 14th Five-Year Plan, thus reserveing ​​elastic space for achieving the 2035 long-term goals. Although my country's total economic output has reached a new level of 130 trillion yuan, as a major developing country with a population of more than 1.4 billion, my country's per capita national income is still lower than the world average and has not yet crossed the threshold of a high-income country. It is necessary to insist on taking development as the top priority of the Party's governance and rejuvenation of the country. While continuing to achieve effective improvement of economic quality, it continues to achieve reasonable quantitative growth and build a strong material and technological foundation for Chinese-style modernization.

Where is the confidence to achieve the growth target of about 5%? It comes from the past’s soil cultivation and the current pioneering and enterprising, and also comes from the future’s positive support. In 2024, my country's GDP grew by 5% year-on-year, and the positive factors that promote the sustained improvement of the economy continued to accumulate and increase, laying a good foundation for the positive development of the economy this year. my country is a super-large-scale economy, with institutional advantages, market advantages, industrial system advantages and human resources advantages continuing to consolidate, and has broad incremental space for demand upgrades, structural upgrades, and momentum upgrades. Further comprehensive deepening of reform will stimulate new development momentum, and a package of incremental policies and existing policies will continue to play a role. Judging from the situation in various places, most provinces will set their growth targets at no less than 5% this year, which will also provide strong support for the realization of national goals.

Add to speed, not just speed - this is a methodology for correctly understanding the Chinese economy in the stage of high-quality development. About 5% is an expected and guiding goal. The more you face pressure, the more you must maintain strategic determination, firmly grasp the primary task of high-quality development and the strategic task of building a new development pattern, pay more attention to improving the quality and efficiency of development, and while maintaining the basic foundation of macroeconomic "stability" and continuously expand new space for "progress" while promoting high-quality development.

2025 is the year when the 14th Five-Year Plan is concluded and the 15th Five-Year Plan is planned. It is an important year for further comprehensive deepening of reform, inheriting the past and starting the future and affecting the overall situation. Anchoring the growth target of about 5% reflects not only development wisdom, but also historical responsibility. At present, my country's economic operation still faces many difficulties and challenges, and it is necessary to make arduous efforts to achieve the goals. As long as more than 1.4 billion people have firm confidence, work hard and strive to transform all positive factors into development achievements, China's economy will surely build a solid foundation in climbing the slope and overcoming obstacles, and move steadily and far in the face of high winds and high waves. (Author: Xiong Li)

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