CCTV News: On April 30, 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center and the China Federation of Logistics and Procurement released the China Purchasing Manager Index. In this regard, Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, gave an explanation.
In April, the manufacturing purchasing managers index was 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month; the non-manufacturing business activity index and the comprehensive PMI output index were 50.4% and 50.2%, respectively, continuing to remain in the expansion range.
1. The manufacturing purchasing manager index fell. In April, due to factors such as the rapid growth of the manufacturing industry in the early stage, the manufacturing industry's PMI was 49.0%, falling below the critical point.
(I) Both ends of production and demand have slowed down. The production index and the new order index were 49.8% and 49.2%, respectively, down 2.8 and 2.6 percentage points from the previous month, and both manufacturing production and market demand fell. From an industry perspective, the two indexes of agricultural and sideline food processing, food, wine and beverage refined tea, medicine and other industries are both at 53.0% or above, and production and demand are released quickly; the two indexes of textile, textile, clothing, and metal products industries have fallen significantly, both below the critical point.
(II) The high-tech manufacturing industry continues to improve. From the perspective of key industries, the PMI of high-tech manufacturing industry is 51.5%, significantly higher than the overall level of manufacturing industry. Its production index and new order index are both at 52.0% and above. The high-tech manufacturing industry continues to develop well. The PMIs of equipment manufacturing, consumer goods and high-energy-consuming industries were 49.6%, 49.4% and 47.7%, respectively, down 2.4, 0.6 and 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, and the economic level fell to varying degrees.
(III) The price index has declined. Affected by factors such as insufficient market demand and the continued decline in prices of some commodities recently, the purchase price index and ex-factory price index of major raw materials were 47.0% and 44.8%, respectively, down 2.8 and 3.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the overall level of the manufacturing market price has declined.
(IV) The expected index remains expanding. The expected index of production and operation activities is 52.1%, continuing to be in the expansion range. Some industries have strong confidence in recent development, among which the expected index of production and operation activities in industries such as food, wine and beverage refined tea, automobiles, railway, ship, aerospace equipment, etc. are all located in a high economic range of 58.0% or above.
2. The non-manufacturing business activity index continued to expand
In April, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and still above the critical point, and the non-manufacturing industry continued to expand overall.
(I) The prosperity level of the service industry continues to expand. The service industry business activity index was 50.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and still above the critical point. From an industry perspective, the business activity index of industries such as air transportation, telecommunications, radio and television, satellite transmission services, Internet software and information technology services, and insurance are all in a relatively high prosperity range of more than 55.0%, and the total business volume is growing rapidly; the business activity index of industries such as water transportation and capital market services has dropped below the critical point. From the perspective of market expectations, the business activity expectations index is 56.4%, which continues to be in a relatively high prosperity range. Most service industry companies have strong confidence in market development.
(II) The construction industry continues to expand. The construction industry's business activity index was 51.9%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, and is still in the expansion range. Among them, the commercial activity index of the civil engineering construction industry was 60.9%, an increase of 6.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that as the construction of engineering projects in various places is progressing in an orderly manner, the progress of civil engineering construction has accelerated. From the perspective of market expectations, the business activity expectations index is 53.8%, and construction companies remain optimistic about the recent market development expectations.
3. The comprehensive PMI output index continues to be in the expansion range
In April, the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.2%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, and still higher than the critical point, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of my country's enterprises have maintained expansion. The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index that constitute the comprehensive PMI output index were 49.8% and 50.4% respectively.
Overall, the comprehensive PMI output index has always been above the critical point since January 2023. my country's overall economic output continues to expand, and the long-term positive fundamentals have not changed. Affected by factors such as sharp changes in the external environment, the manufacturing purchasing managers index fell in April, but high-tech manufacturing and other related industries continued to expand, and the production and operation of manufacturing enterprises mainly based on domestic sales was generally stable. From a global perspective, there are no winners in the trade war and tariff war. Affected by the increasing uncertainty of the trade environment, the manufacturing prosperity of major economies is generally in the contraction range. The US manufacturing PMI in March released by the American Supply Management Association was 49.0%, and the initial value of the manufacturing PMI in the euro zone, the UK and Japan in April released by relevant institutions are all lower than the critical point. In the next stage, we must conscientiously implement the spirit of the Political Bureau meeting of the Central Committee on April 25, coordinate domestic economic work and international economic and trade struggles, focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, and respond to the uncertainty of sharp changes in the external environment with the certainty of high-quality development.
