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Why should we adjust the statistical caliber of M1? Here comes the answer
2025-01-14 source:cctv.com

CCTV news: The State Council Information Office held a series of press conferences on "China's high-quality economic development results" on January 14 to introduce the situation of financial support for high-quality economic development.

Zhang Wenhong, head of the Survey and Statistics Department of the People's Bank of China, pointed out that money supply is the total number of financial instruments that bear circulation and payment means at a certain point in time, and is an important indicator of financial statistics and analysis. The People's Bank of China has always attached great importance to adjusting the statistical caliber of money supply based on economic and financial development and changes in the liquidity of financial instruments. my country's money supply statistics have experienced four major adjustments since its establishment. In recent years, my country's financial market and financial innovation have developed rapidly, and the liquidity of financial instruments has undergone major changes. The scope of financial instruments that meet the statistical definition of M1 has also changed. It is necessary to consider dynamic optimization of the statistical caliber of M1.

Zhang Wenhong introduced that this optimization of the M1 statistical caliber is based on the current M1 and further includes personal demand deposits and non-bank payment institution customer reserves. Regarding personal current deposits, when the M1 statistics were created, there were no personal bank cards in my country, let alone a mobile payment system. Personal current deposits could not be used for instant transfers and payments, so they were not included in the M1 statistical caliber at that time. With the rapid development of payment methods, personal current deposits now have the function of transfer payment, which can be used for payment at any time without withdrawing cash. The liquidity is similar to that of corporate current deposits, and should be included in M1. Regarding the reserve funds of non-bank payment institution customers, such as our WeChat wallet, Alipay balance, etc., they can be directly used for payment or transactions, have strong liquidity, and should also be included in M1. From an international perspective, the statistical caliber of M1 in major economies mostly includes personal current deposits and other highly liquid payment instruments.

Zhang Wenhong said that financial statistics are an objective reflection of financial operations, and the determination of statistical indicator calibers should be based on scientificity and effectiveness to provide information support for policy decisions. After calculating historical data, we found that the correlation between the revised M1 data and economic growth indicators has increased, and the stability has also improved. The People's Bank of China will continue to maintain the transparency of statistical data. It will start counting M1 based on the revised caliber starting from January this year, and it is expected to be released to the public in early February. At the same time as the first announcement, the revised M1 balance and growth rate since January last year will also be announced.

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