CCTV news: The State Council Information Office held a series of press conferences on "China's high-quality economic development results" on January 14 to introduce the situation of financial support for high-quality economic development.
Xuan Changneng, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, said that the People's Bank of China mainly considers the domestic economic and financial situation in implementing monetary policy, and of course also takes into account the internal and external balance. In 2024, the international situation is complex and changeable. Multiple factors have driven the U.S. dollar index to fluctuate and strengthen. China's foreign exchange market has shown very good resilience. The RMB exchange rate has generally shown a two-way fluctuation trend. It has maintained basic stability under the complex situation and performed better among major currencies. It is relatively good, creating favorable conditions for China to implement its own monetary policy, and playing a positive role in stabilizing the economy and foreign trade. At the end of 2024, the RMB exchange rate index (CFETS), which measures the exchange rate changes of the RMB against a basket of currencies, was 101.47, an increase of 4.2% from the end of the previous year; the closing price of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar was 7.2988, a depreciation of 2.8% from the end of the previous year, and the US dollar index increased by 7% during the same period. , the resilience of the RMB has been fully demonstrated.
Xuan Changneng pointed out that in the future, the complexity, severity and uncertainty of the external environment may further increase, but China’s economic foundation is solid, the current account maintains a surplus, and cross-border capital flows are autonomously balanced. Foreign exchange reserves are sufficient and the foreign exchange market is resilient, providing certainty and strong support for maintaining the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate.
First, the macroeconomic market is more solid. The package of incremental support policies introduced since last year, especially since September last year, will continue to be implemented and bear fruit. The Central Economic Work Conference has deployed a more active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy in 2025, which will further consolidate China's economic recovery and good momentum. .
Second, the current account has maintained a surplus for many consecutive years. In the first 11 months of 2024, the trade surplus in goods was US$884.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.4%, providing a strong guarantee for balancing foreign exchange supply and demand.
The third is the independent balance of cross-border capital flows. The opening of the financial market is steadily advancing, and the level of cross-border investment and financing facilitation continues to improve, attracting steady inflows of overseas medium and long-term capital.
Fourth, the foreign exchange reserve market remains stable and effectively plays a ballast role in maintaining the country's economic and financial stability.
Fifth, the foreign exchange market is more resilient. Market participants are more mature, their trading behaviors are more rational, the concept of exchange rate risk neutrality continues to strengthen, and more use of exchange rate hedging tools provides a very important micro-foundation for the stable operation of the foreign exchange market and the balance between foreign exchange supply and demand. Currently, RMB cross-border receipts and payments in goods trade account for about 30%, and the proportion of corporate foreign exchange hedging reaches 27%. These are very good micro fundamentals for the foreign exchange market.
Xuan Changneng emphasized that the People's Bank of China's exchange rate policy stance is clear and consistent, and the goal of maintaining a basically stable RMB exchange rate will not change. We have accumulated rich experience in responding to external shocks over the years, and we are confident that , have the conditions and ability to achieve the goal resolutely. In the next stage, we will continue to take comprehensive measures to enhance the resilience of the foreign exchange market, stabilize market expectations, strengthen market management, resolutely correct market procyclical behavior, resolutely deal with behavior that disrupts market order, resolutely prevent the risk of exchange rate overshooting, and maintain the RMB exchange rate. Basically stable at a reasonable equilibrium level.
